A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Both composes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
